My first job out of college was at a mortgage company. This was in the early 2000’s when interest rates had fallen to all-time lows and everyone in America was refinancing their home loan. The market demand at the time far exceeded the supply and there seemed to be an endless flood of new customers. The company was also an “internet” business, a novelty at that time, and the median employee age was 24. We were all professional neophytes and we learned the business world while drinking from the proverbial fire hose.

Because we were an internet-based company, individuals could create a profile and apply for a loan online. This was a new thing at the time and it made the process much easier and more convenient than it had ever been before. The only material item that would prevent people from refinancing was the value of their home, and as part of the online application process, applicants were required to pay a deposit of $350 that would be used towards their home appraisal. This step gave the potential borrowers “skin in the game” and increased their likelihood of following through with the loan. However, this step also created the primary hurdle, and we were constantly flooded with calls about the appraisal.

The primary issue was this: applicants wanted a guarantee that they would get a loan before they paid the $350 for an appraisal. Assuming the loan was completed, the $350 was a small price to pay. However, they didn’t want to pay $350 and then not be able to refinance their mortgage. It was a reasonable concern. But, it was one to which there was no good answer. In response, the boiler plate office line became, “the only guarantee I can provide is that you won’t get a loan without ordering the appraisal”.

That’s the phrase we all used, and it was effective. It was a little smug and a little salesy, but it was true and made a clear statement. We couldn’t guarantee their loan even if we’d wanted to. There was no telling what their home would appraise for and thus, any figures we provided were hypothetical until we had the appraisal. It was a conversation most of us had on a daily basis, and it’s something I still think about to this day.

There will never be guarantees. Never. You can research and do your homework, but there will never be a guarantee of success. You can calculate and maximize your odds, but an element of risk will still remain. Whatever it is, at some point in the process, you’re going to have to take a chance.

This is something we all know, but it’s also something that’s hard to embrace. We’d all move to LA and wait tables for two years if there was a guarantee we’d become movie stars. No one would quit the garage band if there was a guarantee of becoming a rock god. Every guy would ask out that girl if there was a guarantee she’d say yes. This point is easy to see within large, abstract examples. But, it’s much harder to notice in our day to day lives.

In your last company meeting, you’d have probably asked that question if there was a guarantee you wouldn’t look foolish. You would start that blog if there was a guarantee everyone would love it. You’d express yourself openly and honestly with your friends if there was a guarantee it’d be appreciated.

We all hold back, often for what we believe are good reasons. But, realize that no breakthroughs are made this way. Sooner or later you have to take a chance. Eventually you have to take that leap. There comes a point when you just have to order the appraisal.